一项最新调查显示，求职者对找到新工作的信心有所下降，这再次表明美国民众对经济持悲观态度。
纽约联邦储备银行消费者预期调查显示，8月受访家庭户主对失业后再就业的"平均感知概率"下降了5.8个百分点至44.9%，创下自2013年纽约联储开始收集该数据以来的最低纪录。
与此同时，美国民众对失业的担忧与日俱增。预计一年后美国失业率将上升的民众比例增加了1.7个百分点，达到39.1%。这一数据反映出美国民众对整体经济形势持更为悲观的态度。根据哥伦比亚广播公司新闻频道（CBS News）最新民调显示，多数受访者仍认为经济形势正在恶化而非好转。
这份调查描绘了劳动力市场的黯淡景象。自7月就业数据显示出低于预期的就业增长，并对6月和5月数据大幅下调以来，劳动力市场一直备受关注。周五公布的8月数据表明美国招聘活动陷入低迷，雇主仅新增2.2万个工作岗位。失业率也微升至4.3%，创下2022年10月以来的最高水平。
低解雇率，低雇佣率
专家将当前形势描述为“低解雇、低雇佣”的环境。
Indeed招聘实验室经济学家艾莉森·施里瓦斯塔瓦向CBS财经观察频道表示："在充满不确定性的环境下，雇主们或许会尽力留住现有员工，但并未增设新岗位。这种形势下，员工们也心领神会，选择安于现职而非寻求新机会。"
美国银行利率网站（Bankrate）最新调查显示，约半数美国人计划在未来一年内寻找新工作。但数据表明，自2022年"大辞职潮"期间数百万人离职后，实际换岗人数已显著放缓。彼时因劳动力供应中断推高用工需求，劳动者拥有更强的议价能力。不过近年来，这种平衡已开始重新向雇主倾斜。
美国银行最新分析显示，其客户离职率从2022年超过26%的峰值大幅下降，目前仅为3.3%，略高于201年的水平。专家指出，这主要源于职场人士跳槽机会减少，以及对劳动力市场现状的普遍不安。
施里瓦斯塔瓦表示：“如果这种停滞持续下去，失业率——以及裁员人数——将会上升，进一步削弱劳动力市场。”
肩负维持强劲就业市场和低通胀使命的美联储（Fed）已承认，就业下行风险正在加剧。这增强了央行在9月16日至17日的下次会议上降息的可能性。
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Job seekers' confidence in finding new employment has fallen, a new survey reveals, another sign of Americans' negative views of the economy.
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations, the average "perceived probability" of finding a new job after losing one fell 5.8% points to 44.9% among heads of households surveyed in August, the lowest measure on record since 2013 when the New York Fed began collecting data.
At the same time, Americans are increasingly worried about losing their current job. Expectations that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher a year from now crept up 1.7 percentage points to 39.1%. The data comes as Americans adopt a more solemn view of the economy overall. According to a recent CBS News a recent CBS News poll , a majority continue to say the economy is getting worse, as opposed to better.
The survey paints a bleak picture of the labor market, which has been under a microscope since July's employment data showed weaker-than-expected job growth and sharp downward revisions for the months of June and May. August's data, released Friday, pointed to a slump in U.S. hiring, with employers adding 22,000 jobs . Unemployment also ticked up to 4.3%, the highest rate since October 2022.
"Low-fire, low-hire"
Experts describe the current conditions as a "low-fire, low-hire" environment.
"Employers may be holding onto their current workers amid uncertainty, but they are not adding new positions," Allison Shrivastava, economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, told CBS MoneyWatch. "In turn, employees have taken the hint, staying in their current jobs rather than seeking new opportunities."
According to a recent Bankrate survey, about half of Americans are planning to search for a new job in the next year. At the same time, data shows that the number of people actually changing jobs has slowed significantly since 2022, when millions of people quit their jobs during the "Great Resignation." During this period, workers had more negotiating power because labor supply disruptions created heightened demand for workers. That balance, however, has started shifting back in favor of employers in recent years.
A recent analysis from Bank of America shows that the percentage of its customers leaving their jobs has largely trended downward from a more than 26% peak in 2022, and is now just slightly above the job change rate in 2019, at 3.3% . Experts say that's mainly because there are fewer opportunities for people to switch jobs and general unease with the state of the labor market.
"If this stagnation continues, unemployment — and layoffs — will increase, further weakening the labor market," said Shrivastava.
The Fed, which is tasked with maintaining a robust job market and low inflation, has acknowledged that the downside risks to employment are rising. This strengthens the likelihood that the central bank will cut rates at its next meeting, which is scheduled for Sept. 16 to 17.
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